[estoyloco]

Has anyone been following Ford stocks?

They seemed to be on a rise Q3/Q4 of 2010, probably due to all the new cars coming out and planned revamp of their lines.

January 2011 they had a peak at $18.97/share.
In 8 months they have managed to lose $8.41/share which is down ~44% with today closing at $10.56/share

Anyone have a feeling this is attributed to lackluster performance of their revampment? Bad reviews and lowered JD Power ratings from #5 to #23?

Their goal was to make a more upscale Ford, get rid of the Mercury line. Not sure how this is going for them, especially since most of their upscale features are causing lots of problems.

If MFT problems and stock prices are any indication, doesn't look good.
I bring MFT up because it is Ford's vision into the future, they plan on high-tech. If they can't deliver on their first entry into the field...

 

[Mike_Mac]

could be they just did a Lincoln revamp that cost them 1 billion in june

 

[86524]

Any large scale change takes a while to adjust to. Both on the consumer side and the production side. Most Americans just want pickup trucks and mini-vans. Ford will get there, they're just ahead of the curve a bit.

 

[jmiller_1974]

Doesn't bother Me, I bought My FoMoCo stock at $2.12/share, so I'm still up by roughly 500%, lol. Worry not, Ford has pulled bigger rabbits out of its' ass than this. Consider it a hiccup. A big one, but a hiccup no less.

 

[feta_mgp]

Considering Ford was the only domestic company able to pull through the recession without needing a gov't. bailout, I'm certain they'll be able to turn things around once they get the ball rolling.

 

[estoyloco]

True that Ford pulled out of the recession without a bailout, but that also came with alot of consequences i.e. debts unpaid / repayments that cut into the profits.

But the question is why the huge decline after the introduction of their revampment?

could be they just did a Lincoln revamp that cost them 1 billion in june

This shouldn't affect their continued decline which started in January.

Timeline is that new vehicles are typically released Q3. FoMoCo saw a huge increase September ~ Q3 2010 to Jan 2011, going from 12.56 (Sep 20) to 18.97 (Jan high). After the dust settled it was pretty much a steady decline, with minor fluctuations.

 

[estoyloco]

Though I guess you could say the same thing about almost every car company out there...

Everyone gets hyped with the new line, stocks sore, dust settles and stocks drop right back down.

GM/Toyota/Honda/Ford all had the same trend.

That or 2011 is just a bad year for car companies.

 

[feta_mgp]

True that Ford pulled out of the recession without a bailout, but that also came with alot of consequences i.e. debts unpaid / repayments that cut into the profits.

But the question is why the huge decline after the introduction of their revampment?

As with any major business decision, positive results don't often come overnight. While mainstays like the F-150 will remain best sellers because they're F-150s, revamping the rest of the line and the company image as a whole probably made consumers think and wait to see the results before investing again. It's the same way with any business, but it's up to those who are early adapters to the new Ford to set the stage for their future.

With MFT, problems will be had and this will be impacting them, however we must remember that the MFT system is still an OPTION, not a standard feature, and as such can be avoided and thus the problems averted.

So, let's focus solely on the cars... the Focus, IIHS and European top safety pick, winning a lot of comparisons and a lot of praise (non MFT equipped) all across the spectrum.

The Mustang, still having transmission issues but the return of classics like the Boss 302 and 5.0 have gotten some pretty awesome feedback, not to mention they're just awesome cars again and the new sheetmetal on the latest generation just looks awesome (if you ask me.)

The Taurus, the newest generation Taurus has been an awesome car since it debuted... it's no longer just the family sedan of the company, that now falls to the Fusion, the Taurus is now the flagship sedan, boasting over the top tech, quality, luxury, and even power with the SHO, an awesome contender.

The Fusion, a best seller in its segment since it's debut, also a class-leading option. The hybrid gets amazing fuel economy for the size and practicality the car affords.

The Fiesta, with the Focus now introduced getting the same fuel economy, the Fiesta doesn't have much to say anymore, but it's still a great entry level car, and it's cheap too. You can't go wrong if you just need a small car that's great on gas to go get groceries and cart you to and from work.

All the new Ford line-up consists of is solid contenders in their respective class segments, and the above were just the cars.

The Escape hasn't been selling greatly but it's getting a new refreshed generation, and it borrows a lot of the Euro styling from the Focus, and if you ask me, it looks really cool. It'll turn some heads.

The rest don't need much introduction... especially the F-150. It speaks for itself in sales and reviews alone.

 

[2011 SE]

Timeline is that new vehicles are typically released Q3. FoMoCo saw a huge increase September ~ Q3 2010 to Jan 2011, going from 12.56 (Sep 20) to 18.97 (Jan high). After the dust settled it was pretty much a steady decline, with minor fluctuations.

Well their sales numbers went through the roof when there was a period between when they announced the Third Gen and when it was actually released. You had people like me that walked into a dealership with 60+ Second Gen cars on a day when no one was buying (the day before Thanksgiving). I talked down an $18k Second Gen car to $12k. I wasn't going to buy, as I had my heart set on a Third Gen, but with a price like that, I couldn't say no. And I'm sure I'm no unique snowflake.

I'm guessing thousands of people had the same story between October and January.

 

[estoyloco]

With MFT, problems will be had and this will be impacting them, however we must remember that the MFT system is still an OPTION, not a standard feature, and as such can be avoided and thus the problems averted.

Yes MFT is still an OPTION, but it is also a market segment that Ford wants to move into.

Keep in mind there is one trim where MFT is NOT optional as well.

Also to completely dismiss it that because it is optional it shouldn't affect a car in anyway is naive.

JD Power thinks otherwise.

 

[SevanC]

I don't follow Ford's stock closely, but I would guess the bad performance is more a reflection of growing pessimism about the economy. Another issue is it's a contract year with the UAW and Ford is the only company they can strike. They voted to authorize a strike (which doesn't mean they actually will) which doesn't help.

 

[SkyPilot]

could it just be the economy in general?

All stock prices within the last 52 weeks

GM High 39.48 today 22.86

Toyota High 93.90 today 69.85

Honda High 44.56 today 31.10

I think your reading too far into this, all the car companies spiked towards the beginning of the year, while all have been on a steady decline since then, all around the same percentage as well.

I blame the economy in general.

 

[BigJay]

combination of economy and investment i think, ford has invested alot of money in the focus and their cars right now, and still trying to remain cost competitive is probly cutting into their bottom line and profits, which i think is great, more large companies need to make less money so we can all have more!

 

[macromind]

I'd have to agree with SkyPilot. I just started a position in Ford stock recently at around $10 a share with the thought of adding to my position on further declines.

Barron's had quite a bullish article on Ford in the July 30th edition which pointed to Ford's declining debt, forthcoming models, and opportunities in China and India, where they have very little market share. And this was when the stock was trading at $12 with a forward PE of around 6.

Ken Heebner, a market guru, piled in this stock earlier this year in the high teens, making it his largest position. He must be dying cause he also sold most of his Apple shares for around $300.

The point is all the bad news (mainly the economy) is already baked into this stock. Buy it now and hang on to it for a few years and you're certain to double your money.

 

[geckofrey]

could it just be the economy in general?

All stock prices within the last 52 weeks

GM High 39.48 today 22.86

Toyota High 93.90 today 69.85

Honda High 44.56 today 31.10

I think your reading too far into this, all the car companies spiked towards the beginning of the year, while all have been on a steady decline since then, all around the same percentage as well.

I blame the economy in general.

I definitely agree with this statement. I would also add that generally people that invest in the stock market and really sway a stock price are not individuals. They are people who invest to make money. For instance, analysts such as Jim Cramer (Yes, some people hate him and some people love him, but he is a smart person) don't look at options such as MFT and individuals features of a car. They look at monthly sales, margin that a company is making, etc. Yes, features help to drive sales for a company but I don't think it is a deciding factor. Ford's stock will continue to rise as more people have faith in the new cars and they can increase production to reach demand. Low production = Low sales. After all, the crash test ratings haven't even come out yet for the focus...

 

[danyall2010]

Has anyone been following Ford stocks?

They seemed to be on a rise Q3/Q4 of 2010, probably due to all the new cars coming out and planned revamp of their lines.

January 2011 they had a peak at $18.97/share.
In 8 months they have managed to lose $8.41/share which is down ~44% with today closing at $10.56/share

Anyone have a feeling this is attributed to lackluster performance of their revampment? Bad reviews and lowered JD Power ratings from #5 to #23?

Their goal was to make a more upscale Ford, get rid of the Mercury line. Not sure how this is going for them, especially since most of their upscale features are causing lots of problems.

If MFT problems and stock prices are any indication, doesn't look good.
I bring MFT up because it is Ford's vision into the future, they plan on high-tech. If they can't deliver on their first entry into the field...

I think the stock ran up quickly and that is why you see the drop. I bought the stock at around 7 and sold at about 14. The market conditions are terrible right now (though it would get better). Ford is also spending a lot of money and resources on cars like my beloved 2012 Focus. As for MFT, I hope the issue will pass soon and introduce reliable technology into their vehicles. [thumb]

 

[Fine Focus]

I have held a position in Ford stock for about ten years.

The auto industry is currently experiencing a turbulent period. Remember, international and emerging markets like Europe, China and others figure heavily in the fortunes of all automakers, including Ford. Once world economies including the U.S. improve, then demand goes up and the strong automakers will be in a position to increase sales and profits.

I do not think the issues with early versions of user electronics and telematics like MFT are damaging Ford long term. However, it does seem ironic to me that if Alan Mulally's old employer, Boeing had experienced MFT types of failures with avionics in lets say 737 aircraft (yes I know that Boeing does not actually make those electronics) , this would be a very serious issue for obvious reasons.

I just think we are in the early stages of development of auto "avionics" and over time these will improve.

Overall, I do think that despite MFT issues etc, Ford is well positioned to thrive once the economy and product demand improves.

 

[CrazyDave]

I would like to see a dividend again. That would make owning Ford attractive.