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Old 04-20-2012, 05:23 PM   #21
TitaniumGero
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I had a thought. Why don't we start the graph the day the car was bought(or sometime close) and end it in the 4th month, then make the same graph a year later with the same time frame. That way we could eliminate the weather factor and get more accurate results.
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Old 04-20-2012, 05:48 PM   #22
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All good comments guys. I'll take another look at the raw data and see if it can be massaged a little in accordance with your comments. I'm all for seeking a more reliable truth.

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Originally Posted by TitaniumGero View Post
I had a thought. Why don't we start the graph the day the car was bought(or sometime close) and end it in the 4th month, then make the same graph a year later with the same time frame. That way we could eliminate the weather factor and get more accurate results.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TboneZX3 View Post
I see where you're going, and it's neat data to look at.

I would also want to know at what mileage each of their trends started so I knew with certainty that they were in the break-in period. In the first graph, I see more downward trends than I do upwards, as you stated.

I don't think fuelly.com gives us the actual miles on the car but I'll double check.

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Originally Posted by JoeRogan View Post
Sample size is far, far to small to get a statistically significant trend from the data
I admitted as much, but if 15 of the 20 are showing pretty much the same thing I'm convinced.



Quote:
Originally Posted by TboneZX3 View Post
Hey, I just wanna say that I'm not trying to poop all over your work here. Like I said, it's very interesting and appreciate you putting it together.

I'm a natural cynic.
Thanks man, I appreciate it. I tend to play devil's advocate on other people too.
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Old 04-20-2012, 05:50 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Red 2012 View Post
Kam ... this analysis is probably just what any high powered research firm would come up with. I did a lot of surveys when I was working at a newspaper and most of the time came up very close results using random selections from a monster data base. Myth busters is right on.
Ha ha, thanks man. Finally my marketing classes from business school years ago are coming into use!
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Old 04-20-2012, 09:11 PM   #24
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I have never seen an increase of mileage after break in.
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Old 04-20-2012, 09:29 PM   #25
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Here is mine, from day one with 23 miles. I'm only at 3380 atm

http://www.fuelly.com/driver/visioned/focus
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Old 04-20-2012, 09:31 PM   #26
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Here are revised versions of the graphs.

In fuelly each mpg calc is accompanied by the % city driving on that tank, where the user posts it. I went through that data and eliminated tanks where the quoted % city was more than 20% away from the driver's overall average. So if someone averaged 45% city driving while owning the car, I deleted any data associated with less than 25% city or more than 65% city. That will help minimize the effects of different driving conditions (i.e. city vs highway).

Not surprisingly, I didn't have to delete that much data at all because most folks are pretty consistent.

I also replaced 4 drivers with others because they didn't list what % city each tank was.

I can't confirm that tank 1 for each of these drivers was their first tank since new. But logic says that with 30-70 tanks under their belts, the first 1 had to be pretty close to the first, if not the first. Most of these drivers' data starts in May, June or July of last year.

Finally I faded out the "spaghetti" to make the trendlines easier to see.

Not much has changed:

1 driver increased a huge 13mpg
4 drivers increased a modest 2-4 mpg
8 drivers remained flat
7 drivers decreased a modest 1-3 mpg

Enjoy and take what you want from it. It tells me that MPG is unlikely to change much from new for most folks. I know some have reported larger gains. There are always exceptions.



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Old 04-20-2012, 09:44 PM   #27
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Just some food for thought; maybe this graph isn't as accurate in the classical sense. While it may portray a drop in mpg over time, i don't think it's actually because the engine has become worse or its efficiency is decreasing.

Rather, I think it's the novelty, or idea of high mpg's fading. For instance, when i first got my car, i tried everything i could possibly do within reason to hit and beat the estimated mpg rating. And for a car as sensitive as this, (a drop in 10 degrees fahrenheit, a slight drizzle, a head on breeze, a difference in 5mph, could decrease your avg mpg of ~40 to sub ~35 levels [highway of course]) i really tried hard to watch for any of these factors. After about 4 months, I just stopped caring--the novelty wore off. Screw it i said, i knows it gets good mpgs, now i'm going to drive it @ 70+. It could very well be that the graphs show that transition.

Edit:

As for the increase in efficiency for some of the drivers, they may have figured out how their driving habits affect the car's performance, and/or may have changed their habits to get better mileage. Maybe their driving routine has changed as well (I was totally joyriding for the first few weeks of owning the car... not so much anymore). Lots and lots of factors, especially on a car like this.
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Old 04-21-2012, 05:35 AM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TboneZX3 View Post
Yes, that is the problem. It is assuming too much to come to any general conclusions, IMO.
It is. at least, a reasonable demonstration of inductive reasoning that can build to a hypothesis. It is far better than the current alternative: a bunch of anecdotal reports with no basis in established science.
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Old 04-21-2012, 05:48 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kam327 View Post
Here are revised versions of the graphs.

In fuelly each mpg calc is accompanied by the % city driving on that tank, where the user posts it. I went through that data and eliminated tanks where the quoted % city was more than 20% away from the driver's overall average. So if someone averaged 45% city driving while owning the car, I deleted any data associated with less than 25% city or more than 65% city. That will help minimize the effects of different driving conditions (i.e. city vs highway).

Not surprisingly, I didn't have to delete that much data at all because most folks are pretty consistent.

I also replaced 4 drivers with others because they didn't list what % city each tank was.

I can't confirm that tank 1 for each of these drivers was their first tank since new. But logic says that with 30-70 tanks under their belts, the first 1 had to be pretty close to the first, if not the first. Most of these drivers' data starts in May, June or July of last year.

Finally I faded out the "spaghetti" to make the trendlines easier to see.

Not much has changed:

1 driver increased a huge 13mpg
4 drivers increased a modest 2-4 mpg
8 drivers remained flat
7 drivers decreased a modest 1-3 mpg

Enjoy and take what you want from it. It tells me that MPG is unlikely to change much from new for most folks. I know some have reported larger gains. There are always exceptions.
Kudos to you for the effort. While it may not stand peer review scrutiny for validity or reliability, it establishes far more basis for sound reasoning than the subjective, "You'll get a lot better mpg after the break in...".
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Old 04-21-2012, 07:10 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TitaniumGero View Post
I had a thought. Why don't we start the graph the day the car was bought(or sometime close) and end it in the 4th month, then make the same graph a year later with the same time frame. That way we could eliminate the weather factor and get more accurate results.
Good idea, though this will only be possible later in the summer. These cars started coming out just over a year ago. We'd need a good 16 months of data for what you recommend. To be revisited.....
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