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Old 01-30-2013, 09:53 AM   #31
gkirk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cuke2u View Post
Hi, I am suprised the depreciation of a Ford is news to anyone, it has always been a fact here. However cars from Vauxhall, Skoda, Hyundai and Kia are worse, the best being VW, don't know why because german cars are less reliable. Most new cars drop about a third of their value once you take it off the forecourt...
One of the least depreciating cars in the USA is the honda fit and generally hondas and toyotas hold their value. I was a bit surprised by how even the numbers were in this survey.

A year old fit can be sold for almost what new one costs. It's insane.

I'm curious what the 3 year depreciation looks like and whether the honda/toyotas do better after the first year.
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Old 01-30-2013, 10:27 AM   #32
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I suppose I consider midwest to be NE, KS, MO.... OH doesn't really say "midwest" to me, but like its been mentioned, perspective has a lot to do with it.

I'm thinking east coast like, VA, NY, ME....

These are all areas where domestic compacts are very popular from what I've seen.
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Old 01-30-2013, 10:34 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by cobie56 View Post
that'd be good.. i'd be interested in ur findings for the east and west coasts. As for cleveland being in the midwest... i guess it's all perspective....i guess it's really included geographically in the east but for us new englanders, once one gets past rochester, ny the accent changes and is more of a midwest accent so many view even western ny state as sort of midwestern... odd, eh?
OK here are the New York (100-mi radius) graphs. Nothing earth-shattering, although they do have a lot more used cars on the market. "Depreciation" is a little higher across the board.

One question I do have which might be answered by the further analysis Jdog913 was referring to. What affect do leases have on the analysis? My impression is that the Cruze and maybe Corolla are leased much more often than the rest. I just remember those $169 mo / $1699 down lease deals on the Cruze a year or so ago. I don't know how the "purchase price" gets reported to the likes of truecar.com with lease deals.

I just don't have access to the data necessary to be able to analyze that.









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Old 01-30-2013, 11:34 AM   #34
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Hi, a handy calculator here, only for the uk http://www.whatcar.com/car-depreciat...ion-calculator
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Old 01-30-2013, 08:11 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kam327 View Post
Consider the data while developing your own thoughts on the subject or ignore it, those are your only two choices. I have no intention on spending any more time on it.
Here are my thoughts. You presented nicely, comparing variables relative to others. (Good job there!) but you didn't check your data set for skewness. This is an extremely confusing topic for people who are not familiar with statistics.

Here is few questions to ask yourself.

Is the data for each vehicle normally distributed meaning a bell curve?

Does the arithmetic mean (Average) equal or to close the median of each data set?

Have you calculated the Z-Score for high and low values of each data set and make sure the score falls in between -2 and 2?

Now the Z-Score checks for outliers in the data set. (Really large or small numbers) Outliers can add bias to the data set and take away from the true average. A few variables that I thought of for this data set that can cause outliers are high mileage vehicles, and individuals who ask too much or too little for there vehicle. This can also be seen in the division of mean by the median. The closer it is the number one then the better.

All of the statements above relates to probability. Probability is important because if the results are no repeatable then the conclusion that was drawn is not correct. Now I've crunched some numbers that you posted for Tampa, FL. I tried to explain this the best I can but if you have any questions please feel free to ask. I'll try to explain Mean, Median, Standard Deviation and Z-Score the best I can.

I conclude that the Focus, Cruze and Corolla all have skewed data sets. Meaning that the data set is not normally distributed. This also means that the depreciation value calculated for the Focus, Cruze and Corolla are using non- normally distributed data. Lets, look at this more deeply.

The normal distribution graphs use a range of car values and see how many cars fall in between that value. If the number is Z on the X-Axis this means that <= Z and >(Z-1). For example 15 on the X-Axis range is <=15 and >14. Same goes for any other number.

2012 Focus

Sample Size= 20
Max = $17,900
Min = $12,300
Mean = $15,670
Median = $15,650
Std. Deviation = 1.39
Z Score Min = -2.41
Z Score Max = 1.59



2012 Cruze

Sample Size= 20
Max = $20,000
Min = $14,500
Mean = $16,495
Median = $16,900
Std. Deviation = 1.58
Z Score Min = -1.26
Z Score Max = 2.21



2012 Corolla

Sample Size= 20
Max = $17,400
Min = $12,900
Mean = $15,7900
Median = $16,000
Std. Deviation = 1.06
Z Score Min = - 2.72
Z Score Max = 1.51



2012 Civic

Sample Size= 20
Max = $19,000
Min = $15,000
Mean = $17,065
Median = $17,000
Std. Deviation = 1.04
Z Score Min = -1.96
Z Score Max = 1.84




2012 Elantra

Sample Size= 20
Max = $17,000
Min = $15,000
Mean = $16,035
Median = $16,000
Std. Deviation = .576
Z Score Min = - 1.79
Z Score Max = 1.67



I recommend changing the sample size and taking the middle 20 numbers with respect to the median of the whole data set causing a more normally distributed curve. Then we can make conclusions of the data.

When this is done then we will most likely see,

* Z-Scores great than -2 and less than 2
* Means and Medians extremely close (Around 1 when divided)
* Bell Shape Curve


Quote:
Originally Posted by MyThIc3LiTe View Post
This data is statistically valid and doesn't need deeper analysis. It's pretty obvious the conclusions you can draw.

Don't see what engineering has to do with this either.

Then I would have to guess you don't know what engineering is about. Industrial Engineers deal with statistics on a regular basis. Other engineering disciplines deal with statistical data analysis.

Care to explain how the data is valid?
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Old 01-31-2013, 07:09 AM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jdog913 View Post
Here are my thoughts. You presented nicely, comparing variables relative to others. (Good job there!) but you didn't check your data set for skewness. This is an extremely confusing topic for people who are not familiar with statistics.

Here is few questions to ask yourself.

Is the data for each vehicle normally distributed meaning a bell curve?

Does the arithmetic mean (Average) equal or to close the median of each data set?

Have you calculated the Z-Score for high and low values of each data set and make sure the score falls in between -2 and 2?
Thanks for the feedback, but the short answer is I don’t care about the distribution or skewness of the data because I took the conservative approach and used the average of the 20 lowest priced cars. That accomplishes several things. It helps to eliminate the high end outliers (like cars with only 500 miles or with a moonroof) since there is an inverse correlation between miles/features and price (remember I’m trying to keep it apples-to-apples and look at the base, high volume trim – your method might include more loaded cars). But more importantly it’s really striving to determine the worst case scenario. “What’s the least I can expect to get for my car?” There may be several lightly used Focuses out there listed for $18,000 which may have been captured by your method, but I don’t want to give anyone the impression they can expect to get $18,000 for theirs when there are also several listed for $14,000. In that way my simple method was the most conservative.

As far as outliers, I limited the mileage of vehicles included in the results to 30,000 so that eliminates any unusually high-mileage vehicles. Also, if the first lowest priced vehicle was more than say $500 less than the next few, I ignored it. And if there were 5 listed by the same dealer for the exact same price, I generally only included one of those to reduce the effect of that one seller on the results.

Your more traditional methods, in my humble opinion (as an engineer and MBA) would not have increased the accuracy of the results enough to justify the extra work. That’s a basic cost-benefit analysis.
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Old 01-31-2013, 10:16 AM   #37
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Oh gawd, for a minute there I thought I was back in my first year of University taking Quantitative Methods and Anaylsis all over again.......arrrrgggh. Jdog, I don't think anyone on here wants to take an intro Stats class, and Kam did a fine job of giving a "generalized" representation to answer a simple question. If others want real, quantitative numbers to crunch, they can certainly do so, but, this is a auto forum, and no one is going to use Kam's numbers to make a major financial decision here. Its all good, but, if you want to do actual market research, I'm sure there is plently of companies out there that will hire you. LOL
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:20 AM   #38
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IMO the data is good, the analysis well designed, the statistical instruments appropriate for their intended purpose, and the results meaningful. Any discussion about variability, skewness or kurtosis is supurfulous -- you don't have to beat the data to death to answer the question. Further analyses of the information would be overkill and likely not alter the relative outcomes significantly. Excellent job kam and thanks for taking the time to share your results! Just my 2 cents worth.
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Old 02-01-2013, 02:35 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jdog913 View Post
Here are my thoughts. You presented nicely, comparing variables relative to others. (Good job there!) but you didn't check your data set for skewness. This is an extremely confusing topic for people who are not familiar with statistics.
<snip>

I recommend changing the sample size and taking the middle 20 numbers with respect to the median of the whole data set causing a more normally distributed curve. Then we can make conclusions of the data.

When this is done then we will most likely see,

* Z-Scores great than -2 and less than 2
* Means and Medians extremely close (Around 1 when divided)
* Bell Shape Curve


Care to explain how the data is valid?
Data is valid without any statistical analysis because it's data. The beautiful thing about presenting a lot of collected data is that the viewer can see all of it and make up their mind what biases, gaps, etc are missing.

While your desire for further analysis is admirable, I don't see how you can claim the data is invalid, any less than looking in the paper and seeing a car for sale is not valid.

As for the 'what does engineering have to do with it'. I think that comment was more directed at the fact that the rest of us know enough statistics to make up our minds about the validity of the original work.

Some data is better than no data, and the work done here is interesting and useful. Nobody is going to use it to build a nuclear weapon, so doing a lot of unreasonable stats on it is a waste of time.

I've had lots of arguments with people who 'understand' statistics better than me to know that most of the time, they have lost the basic understanding of what statistics is and how it works. Don't take this the wrong way, but you seem to fall into that category here.

What you are looking at is a bunch of data, not a statistical analysis.
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Old 02-04-2013, 01:43 PM   #40
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Kiplingers Names Focus Best Resale Value in Under $20k Class

To further bolster the results of my back-of-the-envelope calculations, Kiplinger's has announced the Focus has the highest resale value of cars under $20k.

http://portal.kiplinger.com/slidesho...013/index.html

http://editorial.autos.msn.com/12-be...ue-cars-2012#2

It joins the ranks of Mini, Volvo, Infiniti, Audi, etc. in the upper price classes.


Hopefully this puts to rest the gripes about resale value.


The Focus was also named Best Value in the Under $20k class. Joining the ranks of VW, Toyota, Audi, and Lexus in the upper classes.
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